Every move, click, and choice in the high-stakes esports world could mean a huge loss or an incredible win. While at face value, it might seem like random acts, it takes mathematical intelligence to excel in esports, more precisely, game theory. In this brief post, we will highlight the key ways mathematics provides an edge in esports.
Informs a strategic approach
In esports, strategy choice is an intentional response to what opponents will probably do, not intuition. These models are more prevalent in professional teams, where coaches use them to develop game strategy, exploit tendencies, and adjust in real time. It is all mathematics, from calculating the probabilities of a response to your approach to the most appropriate maneuvers to gain an edge. This shows just how much game theory influences esports strategies.
The Nash Equilibrium
The Nash Equilibrium is the most well-known concept in game theory. It is a situation in which nobody can enhance their payoff by straying from the current plan except if others also do. In other words, everyone is engaged in the “best response” to the strategy of others.
For example, a team will flip rapidly between defaults and rushes in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS: GO). The defensive team has to choose between passive holds and hostile positions. Teams will ultimately inevitably converge on a mix of approaches whereby either one can improve their result by changing circumstances; this is a Nash Equilibrium.
Often looking for these trends, esports coaches will evaluate match history. Opponents adjust, for instance, if a team consistently pushes B on pistol rounds. Eventually, unpredictability is perfect; equilibrium is (temporarily) attained.
Spreadsheets, scrim, and math solvers
Statistics are much more needed in today’s esports than intuition. Several top teams use math solvers and analytic tools to complete the background calculation. These systems, as per probability and reward, can run through their thousands of options and suggest the best moves.
Solvers can counter the expected value of a player and split-pushing against one another in games, where map control and timing to objectives become the deciding factor. Among those intense situations, they consider gold advantage, vision control, cooldowns, and so forth that could be beyond the human intellect to balance simultaneously.
Usually, working alongside the data analysts, who populate spreadsheets with results of practice scrimmages and prior games. Presenting the game as a series of strategic choices with clear outcomes helps analysts to alert when a club is becoming too predictable or if an opponent has a prominent blind spot. Math gives teams a third eye. While players concentrate on performance, math solvers guarantee that the strategy for that execution is logical rather than based on guessing.
Mixed tactics and mind games
One of the productive uses of game theory in esports is combining different techniques to randomize and make your activity less predictable. In situations when your opponent knows what you are doing next, they can act to stop it. You become erratic when you can make your intentions unclear or mix it with a mathematical balance.
In StarCraft II, for example, a Zerg player will, every once in a while, throw in a cheesy early rush even though it’s not safe, just to keep opponents on edge. Regular cheese will make opponents greedy and cut corners. They are simple to penalize and very predictable if they cheese too often. The answer lies in combining it with the right probability; this is a decision that game theory approaches can practically apply. It’s the same idea as in poker, where experts bluff not only to fool but also to balance their ranges. Esports follows suit. Being erratic gives you a competitive edge.
As esports become more professional, game theory will only see application. Teams are hiring mathematicians, AI researchers, economists, and others to simulate the ideal plays. Streaming services, meanwhile, are bringing that knowledge to the wannabe players and fans, hence increasing the player base’s tactical capability and knowledge level.
Remember the next time you see a clutch play, a surprise pick, or a well-timed ambush that this is not just a coincidence. Strategic plays with game theory behind them produce these outstanding traits. The mathematical ideas show that even a millisecond’s delay might win you the game, or a single wrong move could cost you the game. Whether you want to follow the field, become an esports major, or pursue other disciplines, having some mathematical advantage will make all the difference.
